GNWL 1 — almost certain to confirm
GNWL 1 needs just one cancellation from a confirmed passenger to move to RAC or CNF. The probability is approximately 95%. On most routes, it confirms well before departure.
GNWL 5 — very likely to confirm
GNWL 5 needs five spots to clear — either through five separate cancellations, or a combination of cancellations and quota releases. The probability is approximately 80-88%.
When GNWL 5 might not confirm
On very low-demand routes, during peak festival season (when few people cancel), or in premium AC classes with fewer total cancellations, GNWL 5 occasionally doesn't confirm. This is uncommon on major routes.
What to do with either position
Both positions are strong — you do not need a backup for GNWL 1 or GNWL 5 on busy routes. Set a WhatsApp alert on PNR Alert and monitor. If you are travelling in a week and no movement, you can assess then.